Kenny T
September 15, 2009.
You don't need Bob Barker to tell you that two first round picks for Kessel is too much. ESPN reported that Boston demands two first round picks and one second for former 5th overall pick Phil Kessel. They also report that Brian Burke is actually considering it. This would totally set back our rebuilding process that is just starting to go well. And don't forget, Toronto has a long, terrifying history of trading first rounders. Most memorable was trading goaltending prospect Tuukka Rask to Boston for Andrew Raycroft. A trade that hardly worked in our favor.
My opinion is that Brian should try and work a trade where the leafs don't give up any first round picks. Just roster players and maybe a second rounder plus a prospect. Either way I hope the Leafs land Kessel without selling the farm so to speak.
3 comments:
He is not worth 2 firsts and a 2nd IMO. We would give up less than that in an offer sheet, and then let Boston deal with matching. I would however part with our 1st this year and a roster player. Just think of it as drafting our 1st early and getting a guy who can play right away in Kessel. I understand the price is higher because they are in the same division. Let's hope we get him at fair cost
Booooo urns to giving up first rounders. Are only shot at any sort of *sustained* winning is with our young guns. Burke already thought he had a deal with Kaberle straight up, why would he go bigger and give up more now. If he was going to make that trade he could have at the trade deadline.
All first round picks are not made equal. This because of the team's projected ranking at the end of the year. If you go through the projections, two first-round picks don't seem as expensive as you though.
Toronto is aiming for a playoff spot this year. If they get there, for argument's sake 8th place in the Eastern Conference or 16th overall, that places them 14th in the draft order for 2010.
Next year we can expect the team to be even better. Let's say they make it to 6th place in the EC and 12th overall. That places their 2011 first round pick in 2011 as 18th.
The second rounder is a throw-in and an equivalent player can be replaced easily by free agency. So let's not worry about that.
Now, how good are players picked 14th and 18th overall? Here are the 14th overall picks since 2000:
Vaclav Nedorost, Chuck Kobasew, Chris Higgins, Brent Seabrook, Devan Dubnyk, Sasha Pokulok, Michael Grabner, Kevin Shattenkirk, Zach Boychuk
Obviously Higgins and Seabrook are the best of this group.
Here are the 18th overall pics since 2000:
Brooks Orpik, Jens Karlsson, Denis Grebeshkov, Eric Fehr, Kyle Chipchura, Ryan Parent, Chris Stewart, Ian Cole, Chet Pickard
Orpik and maybe Grebeshkov and Chipchura are the decent players from this group.
So, I would say that 14th and 18th overall picks don't result in high impact players. Assuming Toronto improves this year and next, don't expect these first round picks to be worth as much as everyone is making them out to be.
We KNOW that Kessel is a high impact player (36 goals in 70 games last year) and he's only 21. He is leaps-and-bounds better than the players in that list of 14th and 18th overall picks.
Looking at it this way, two firsts and a second is a good trade for Kessel is a great trade for Toronto.
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